Baye's Theorem: Cut it out!
There is this big crowd of people who are desperately trying to to be a part of community that knows the answer to: "Why did that Bayesian traveler didn't crossed the road?" To them it looks like the world is divide into two parts: Smart-ass people who knows what Bayes is all about; and they themselves! To all my friends on the other side, here's a chance to grasp Bayes in most intuitive way (I assume you know basic probability stuff)! The Problem: (Courtesy: http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes) 1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer? Variables: Lets assign the good old variables to the events we have in the problem: A: People with cancer B: People wi